Last month, Donald Trump was elected the 47th president of the United States. He will become only the second president in American history to serve non-consecutive terms, following Grover Cleveland, who reclaimed the White House from Benjamin Harrison in 1893.
Presidents Martin Van Buren (1848), Millard Fillmore (1856), Ulysses S. Grant (1880), and Teddy Roosevelt (1912) all attempted to regain the presidency after being out of power for at least one term but were unsuccessful. Notably, Grant and Roosevelt sought third terms.
Despite his disregard for political norms, Mr. Trump cannot serve a third term. According to the 22nd Amendment to the Constitution—ratified in 1951—a person cannot be elected president more than twice.
Two Peas in a Pod
Apart from running for president in three consecutive election cycles, Donald Trump and Grover Cleveland share another unflattering similarity: both have been plagued by allegations of sexual misconduct. While Mr. Trump's alleged misdeeds have been extensively reported, Cleveland also faced serious accusations during his career.
Maria Halpin, a woman from Buffalo, NY, accused Cleveland of sexual assault, which she claimed resulted in the birth of his son. While Cleveland’s spokesperson admitted that the two were “illicitly acquainted,” Cleveland refused to take responsibility for the child, Oscar Folsom Cleveland. Instead, he suggested any number of Buffalo businessmen could have been the father and reportedly used political influence to have Ms. Halpin committed to a mental institution.
The Election
Heading into the election, Democrats were scratching their heads in disbelief wondering how this contest could be so close. The sitting vice president of the United States is running against a twice impeached convicted felon, who, following his loss in the 2020 election - that he refused to concede and tacitly incited his supporters to try and overturn - scholars ranked as one of the worst presidents in American history.
Nonetheless, polls forecasted a race too close to call in the electoral college and gave Ms. Harris an edge in the popular vote. As it turned out, Democrats’ skepticism about these forecasts was validated—but not in the way they expected.
Donald Trump won convincingly by 312 to 226 electoral votes. He swept every swing state, flipping Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin and gained in almost every measurable demographic. This culminated in a popular vote victory of ~2.5 million.
Schools Out
Across America, the election’s historic results should have been an opportunity for civics lessons or in-depth discussions on why Mr. Trump won. Instead, some teachers canceled classes to give students the day off to "process their feelings." Pathetic.
At TQC, we typically shy away from hypotheticals. However, we find it hard to believe that if Ms. Harris won, schools would have canceled classes. Moreover, shouldn’t educators teach students that life is tough, that defeat happens, and that resilience is key to achieving one’s goals?
In our view, any teacher who canceled class because of the election instead of using the opportunity to educate about the election should be ashamed.
Postmortem
Argued The Economist, “After their loss to Mr. Trump in 2016, Democrats chose not to conduct a formal autopsy and drifted into a movement of mass resistance. This backfired.”
Still, in 2024 Democratic strategists blamed Trump’s win on racism, fascism, and misogyny - peripheral factors at best. If party elites continue to cling to these explanations, they shouldn’t expect different results in the future. Here are five reasons why Donald Trump won in a landslide:
1) Weekend At Bernie’s (Biden’s)
The June 27 debate made it undisputable: Joe Biden was cognitively and physically unfit for another term. While some Biden loyalists initially blamed his poor performance on fatigue, it was clear he should not run again. Yet his inner circle delayed encouraging him to step aside, with his wife Jill even praising his performance as “great.
This denial of reality bordered on elder abuse. By failing to announce a one-term presidency earlier, Biden denied the party a chance to run a proper primary, tarnished his legacy, and left Democrats with an unpopular de facto nominee: Kamala Harris.
2) The Tim Walz Mistake
Harris’s decision to pick Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate baffled many. A relatively unknown figure from a reliably blue state, Walz added no strategic advantage. His lackluster presence became a liability.
Harris could have chosen a moderate Democrat from a swing state, such as Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer or Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro. Instead, she made an unforced error by capitulating to the party’s left wing.
3) Woke Is Broke
Bret Stephens captured this well in The New York Times: “The Democratic Party at its best stands for fairness and freedom. But today’s left leans heavily on social engineering and identity politics.”
Forcing cultural norms on Americans simply wanting to live their lives alienated undecided voters and even moderate Democrats.
4) Lecturing vs Empathizing
Democrats touted inflation data, GDP growth, and low unemployment, but these achievements didn’t resonate with voters struggling to afford necessities. Nearly 40% of Americans have less than $1,000 in savings, and 66% live paycheck to paycheck.
Congresswoman Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-WA) said it best: “You can’t have a conversation about policy if you signal you’re not listening to people or think you’re better than them.”
5) Immigration Missteps
The Democrats mishandled immigration. Initially denying there was a problem at the border, they pivoted too late, blaming Republicans for blocking reform. By then, the damage was done.
After his victory, Donald Trump declared, "America has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate.” That is true. We hope Mr. Trump clears a low bar, surprises to the upside, and the next four years are productive, prosperous, and peaceful.